Nabila Bounceur

Former ANPERC Members

​Research Scientist - Patzek Group

Research Interests

​Combining multiple approaches to understanding complex systems using analysis-based simulations or data-driven statistical modeling approaches" in different fields of interest including Energy Geosystems, Climate Change and Paleoclimate. Approaches include Bayesian statistical modeling, probabilistic sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, non-parametric time series prediction models, high dimensional data clustering, causality inference, scenario interpolation and space filling designs for complex simulations.

The focus in ANPERC includes linking the energy sector to the climate and environment fields for realistic predictions, by constraining statistical models with the physics of the system and observational data, analyzing the impact of climate change on the persistence of renewable energies and society resilience in Saudi Arabia and, analyzing the predictability of energy resources and showing their limits and impacts on the environment and climate.


Research Interest keywords 
Methods: Statistical modeling, Bayesian statistics, Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Gaussian process emulators, Structural Time series models, Clustering, Causality inference, Space filling designs of computer experiments, complex system analysis, non parametric predictive models.

Applications: Saudi Arabia, Climate Change impacts, Climate, Renewable and non-renewable energy prediction, Mineral/Metal peak and production predictions.

Selected Publications

  • A Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach for Predicting Red Sea Temperatures
    Bounceur, N., Hoteit I., O. Knio
    IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing..., (2020)
  • Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future
    Lord, N. S., Crucifix, M., Lunt, D. J., Thorne, M. C., Bounceur, N., Dowsett, H., O'Brien,...
    Past, 13, 1539-1571, https://, (2017)
  • Global sensitivity analysis of the climate-vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach
    N. Bounceur, M. Crucifix, R. D. Wilkinson
    Earth System Dynamics 6 205--224, doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, (2015)
  • The impact of astronomical forcing on the Late Devonian greenhouse climate
    D. De Vleeschouwer, M. Crucifix, N. Bounceur, P. Claeys
    Global and Planetary Change 120 65--80. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.06.002, (2014)


  • ​Researcher, Ph. D., Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, 2015.
  • Master's degree in teaching mathematics (Master à Finalité Didactique), Université de Namur, Belgium, 2008.
  • State Engineer cycle (Ingénieur d'Etat en Automatique), Ecole Nationale Polytechnique, Algeria, 2005
  • Preparatory Diploma of engineering cycle (Premier Cycle Préparatoire aux études d'Ingéniorat), Ecole Nationale Préparatoire aux Etudes d'Ingéniorat, Rouïba, Algeria, 2002.
  • Baccalaureate in Sciences (Mathematic), Lycée Ihaddaden, Béjaïa, Algeria, 1999.

Professional Profile

  • ​Dec 2020 – present: Research Scientist, ANPERC, KAUST, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
  • Jul 2020 – Dec 2020: Postdoctoral fellow, ANPERC, KAUST, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
  • Jun 2016 – Jun 2020: Postdoctoral fellow, CEMSE, KAUST, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
  • 2013-2014: Data Scientist, Part-time R&D Collaborator, SWAN Insights, Bruxelles, Belgium.
  • 2012-2013: Research Assistant, ITOP projects, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.

KAUST Affiliations

  • ​Ali I. Al-Naimi Petroleum Engineering Research Center (ANPERC)
  • Physical Science and Engineering Division (PSE)

Research Interests Keywords

Statistical modeling Bayesian statistics Probabilistic sensitivity analysis