Stochastic and Deterministic Responses of El Nino Southern Oscillation Cycle to Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract: El  Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is arguably the most influential climate quasi-periodic internal oscillation on Earth affecting millions of people around the globe; there is, therefore, a large value in accurately forecasting it for a short-term and for future  climate. ENSO predictions are challenging due to a strong sensitivity of ENSO to external forcing. For example, the ENSO cycle appears to be susceptible to volcanic perturbation. Observations and model studies report that explosive equatorial volcanic eruptions  lead to an El Niño-like response within one to two years following an eruption, although there is no consensus on the mechanism. This study aims at explaining why the post-eruption period is predominantly associated with the positive ENSO phase and classifies  all possible responses. We conduct large ensemble simulations using a comprehensive climate model to study how the ENSO response depends on its initial phase and seasonal timing and magnitude of the eruption. 

Bio: Evgeniya  Predybaylo is a Ph.D. Candidate in Earth Science and Engineering Program. Prior to joining KAUST, she graduated from the Aerophysics and Space Research Department of Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology with B.Sc and M.Sc. degrees. In her M.Sc. thesis,  she analyzed the long-term climate change projections for the Russian Federation based on two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Now, Evgeniya is studying the volcanic eruption impact on ENSO. She was  awarded the Climate Change and Sustainability Prize and the Graduate Award in WEP 2016 Poster Competition. Apart from the academic studies, Evgeniya  was the first female president of the Graduate Student at KAUST.

Event Quick Information

24 Apr, 2019
16:15 PM – 17:15 PM