Geological carbon storage (GCS) is an important strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions so that the State of California and the USA can meet their clean energy goals. This study provides a standardized procedure to evaluate CO2 storage, its risks, and incorporate uncertainties in hydrological and geomechanical parameters. We screen potential storage sites taking into account favorable storage formation characteristics, known seismic risks, and surface restrictions including sensitive habitats. Models incorporating CO2 injection and geomechanical response are then used to investigate CO2 plume migration, pressure, CO2 saturation profiles, and deformation of the earth. We take a probabilistic view of fault slip using a fault slip potential model with a distribution of geomechanical parameters. We also study the area’s historical seismicity and establish criteria to distinguish among natural and induced events. The risk of leakage is assessed using a reduced-order model, and sensitivity analysis, to estimate rates of CO2 and brine escape to drinking water aquifers through the overlying formations, existing wells, and faults. This workflow and accompanying risk assessment is illustrated using a demonstration project with 0.68 MtCO2/yr injection for 18 years and 100 years of monitoring in a saline formation in the Southern San Joaquin Basin.
Geological carbon storage (GCS) is an important strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions so that the State of California and the USA can meet their clean energy goals. This study provides a standardized procedure to evaluate CO2 storage, its risks, and incorporate uncertainties in hydrological and geomechanical parameters. We screen potential storage sites taking into account favorable storage formation characteristics, known seismic risks, and surface restrictions including sensitive habitats. Models incorporating CO2 injection and geomechanical response are then used to investigate CO2 plume migration, pressure, CO2 saturation profiles, and deformation of the earth. We take a probabilistic view of fault slip using a fault slip potential model with a distribution of geomechanical parameters. We also study the area’s historical seismicity and establish criteria to distinguish among natural and induced events. The risk of leakage is assessed using a reduced-order model, and sensitivity analysis, to estimate rates of CO2 and brine escape to drinking water aquifers through the overlying formations, existing wells, and faults. This workflow and accompanying risk assessment is illustrated using a demonstration project with 0.68 MtCO2/yr injection for 18 years and 100 years of monitoring in a saline formation in the Southern San Joaquin Basin.