Keynote - Global Picture of the Energy Transition - Status
The key to understanding the clear and present threat of climate change is to realize that on the earth everything is linked to everything else in a myriad of subtle, detailed, and dynamic equilibria. Once disturbed, these equilibria change in nonlinear and surprising ways. First, I will visit Anthropocene and 140 years of global mean temperature records. I will then introduce the Earth as a complex system of interlinked systems and the miracle of stable albedo of the planet. The bulk of my lecture will be about the causes and symptoms of global heating. In particular, how exactly do GHGs cause global heating? I will focus on the radiation balance of the Sun-Earth system and the fine structure of CO2 IR absorption spectra. I will derive the most likely increment of mean global temperature per each 1 W/m2 of unequilibrated radiative forcing (RF) and per 100 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. I will use my own global fossil future scenario to show how burning fossil fuels will heat up the Earth. Finally, I will give a few translations from technocracy to ecology and debunk two most popular arguments by climate warming denialists. I hope to convince you that climate change is evident, but there is no point in doing more science when mainstream techno-industrial society refuses to apply its results.
The key to understanding the clear and present threat of climate change is to realize that on the earth everything is linked to everything else in a myriad of subtle, detailed, and dynamic equilibria. Once disturbed, these equilibria change in nonlinear and surprising ways. First, I will visit Anthropocene and 140 years of global mean temperature records. I will then introduce the Earth as a complex system of interlinked systems and the miracle of stable albedo of the planet. The bulk of my lecture will be about the causes and symptoms of global heating. In particular, how exactly do GHGs cause global heating? I will focus on the radiation balance of the Sun-Earth system and the fine structure of CO2 IR absorption spectra. I will derive the most likely increment of mean global temperature per each 1 W/m2 of unequilibrated radiative forcing (RF) and per 100 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. I will use my own global fossil future scenario to show how burning fossil fuels will heat up the Earth. Finally, I will give a few translations from technocracy to ecology and debunk two most popular arguments by climate warming denialists. I hope to convince you that climate change is evident, but there is no point in doing more science when mainstream techno-industrial society refuses to apply its results.
